In this course, we extend your business forecasting expertise from the first two courses of our Business Forecasting Specialisation on Time Series Models and Regression Models. We will explore the role of judgmental forecasting, when more quantitative forecasting methods have limitations, and we need to generate further business insights. We will be exploring some structured methodologies to create judgmental business forecasts using Business Indicators, Subjective Assessment Methods, and Exploratory Methods. For each of these methods, we will look at how we can use Excel to help us in achieving these judgmental forecasts and how Excel can help us visualising our forecast findings. Being judgmental forecasting methods, we will also look at the role of biases in Business Forecasting,
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Judgmental Business Forecasting in Excel
This course is part of Excel Skills for Business Forecasting Specialization
Instructor: Dr Prashan S. M. Karunaratne
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There are 5 modules in this course
In this course, we extend your business forecasting expertise from the first two courses of our Business Forecasting Specialisation on Time Series Models and Regression Models. We will explore the role of judgmental forecasting, when more quantitative forecasting methods have limitations, and we need to generate further business insights. We will be exploring some structured methodologies to create judgmental business forecasts using Business Indicators, Subjective Assessment Methods, and Exploratory Methods. For each of these methods, we will look at how we can use Excel to help us in achieving these judgmental forecasts and how Excel can help us visualising our forecast findings. Being judgmental forecasting methods, we will also look at the role of biases in Business Forecasting,
What's included
2 videos4 readings1 discussion prompt
In this topic, we will explore the role that Business Indicators can play in creating business forecasts, in particular to make judgments on the cyclical component, via predicting turns in the business cycle. We will then look at how Excel can help us execute these insights into business forecasts.
What's included
3 videos2 readings4 assignments
In this topic, we will be exploring 3 different Subjective Assessment Methods for judgmental forecasting. These are structured methodologies to follow when creating judgmental forecasts. We will be looking at the Sales Force Composite Method, the Jury of Executive Opinion, and Subjective Probability Assessments. We will then look at how Excel can assist in executing these methodologies.
What's included
3 videos2 readings4 assignments1 peer review
In this topic, we will be exploring 2 different Exploratory Methods for judgmental forecasting. These are structured methodologies to follow when creating judgmental forecasts. We will be looking at the Delphi Method and Scenario Analysis. We will then look at how Excel can assist in executing these methodologies.
What's included
3 videos2 readings4 assignments1 peer review
In this topic, we will reflect on the biases that can occur when conducting business forecasts. Then, we will be bringing all the topics together in a case study based assessment, where you will need to apply the principles of judgment to decide the forecasting method used, and utilise judgmental forecasting.
What's included
1 video4 readings2 assignments
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Duke University
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